The Russian army resumed offensive operations near Kupyansk on the 6th of October, but most of the forces deployed in this area of the front line are likely to remain ineffective in combat, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported.

“A Russian military blogger claims that Russian troops have launched an offensive near Synkivka (8 km northeast of Kupyansk) and that Russian troops are intensively shelling the H26 (Shevchenkove-Kupyansk). Another Russian military blogger described the renewed Russian offensive on Kupyansk as “large-scale” in a post. He later deleted it,” the experts point out.

Situation around Kupyansk in Kharkiv region / Map: storymaps.arcgis.com

Also, according to ISW, Russia has deployed elements of the newly created 25th Combined Army (reportedly formed as part of the Eastern Military District) in the Kupyansk direction to replace elements of the 41st Combined Army (Central Military District).

The resumption of Russian offensive operations near Kupyansk, possibly with the participation of elements of the 25th Combined Army, is likely intended to divert the Ukrainian army’s attention from other parts of the frontline in southern Ukraine. Nevertheless, ISW’s preliminary assessment is that the 25th Army was hastily fielded ahead of its planned December 2023 deployment date and is likely to be significantly undermanned, poorly trained, or both.

ISW has previously observed the presence of severely degraded elements of the Western Military District (WMD) in the Kupyansk area, including the 1st Guards Tank Army and the 6th Combined Army, and does not currently believe that a grouping consisting of the newly formed 25th Combined Arms Army with degraded WMD elements would be capable of conducting a full-scale offensive in the area.

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