UKRAINE, Aug. 3 — In July, Russian forces occupied 36 square kilometers (14 square miles) territory which is more than the Ukrainian troops liberated. They advanced mostly in the Donetsk oblast but it’s still not enough for the full occupation of the region in 2026, said DeepState, a Ukrainian OSINT war monitoring group.

DeepState believes that achieving this goal this year would be “unrealistic,” and adds that “with current pace (of occupation) Russia won’t have any chances in 2027, too.” An important factor that might impact that prognosis will be how Russia’s military mobilization proceeds in the autumn and whether Russia will be able to recruit more North Korean soldiers.

According to analysts, the most difficult situation is currently in Donetsk oblast, including near Rodynske, Kostiantynivka, along the state border, and near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

DeepState noted that, for their calculations, they took into account territorial changes in May and July because advances by Ukrainian forces are displayed with a delay, which is important for security and the successful completion of missions.

Russian gains could have reached 88 square kilometers (34 square miles) this month, but in May the area of occupied territories decreased by 25 square kilometers (9.7 square miles), and, in July, by 27 square kilometers (10.4 square miles).

Analysts also said that Russian infantry groups are currently being destroyed very quickly by Ukrainian drone units, which makes Moscow’s tactic of “meat assaults” no longer as effective as they once were.

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