One-half of them believe that this victory is expected to happen this year. Over a quarter (26%) think it will be in a year or two, 7% – in 3–5 years, and 1% – not earlier than in 5 years. Another 0.4% think that victory is unlikely to come during their lifetime, according to the Razumkov Centre’s research.

Since August 2022, the opinion of Ukrainians regarding the victory has not changed: most residents of all macro-regions are convinced of it. However, 3.5% of respondents do not believe in Ukraine’s victory in the war.

The number of Ukrainian-speaking respondents who believe in victory is 95%, and 87% are among Russian-speaking respondents. 96% of Ukrainians who trust Zelenskyy also believe in victory. Of those who do not trust him, 78% believe in it.

What do Ukrainians consider a victory?

  • Ukrainians mostly consider the removal of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine and the restoration of the borders as of January 2014 as a victory (47%).
  • Another 31% consider the destruction of the Russian army and the promotion of an uprising or disintegration within Russia to be a victory.

82% support severing all relations with the Russian Federation and a complete ban on Russians entering Ukraine after the win, while 9.5% think the opposite. Last year in August, the share of the former was 76%, the latter – 14%.

The rate of those who would support this is:

  • 94% in the Western region,
  • 85% in the Central region,
  • 75% in the Eastern region,
  • 56% in the Southern region.
  • The share of those who oppose it is 3%, 9.5%, 14%, and 18%, respectively.

A complete break in relations with Russia is supported by 87% of those who speak Ukrainian at home, and 69% of those who speak Russian do not support it – 7% and 17% respectively.

The Razumkov Centre’s sociological service conducted the survey from 22 February to 1 March 2023 as part of the MATRA Programme project funded by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands in Ukraine. A total of 2020 respondents over the age of 18 were interviewed face-to-face in the government-controlled territories of Ukraine. The margin of sampling error does not exceed 2.3%.

See also: Razumkov Centre poll: most Ukrainians believe the country is moving in the right direction. This divide fundamentally differs from the one before the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

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