Blue Wave sweeps Republicans out of power in Congress. What does it mean for Ukraine? 

On Nov. 4, the Democrats smashed their political opponents, Republicans, in the midterm elections in the United States. Though Ukraine was on the margins of topics that Americans cared about, in Kyiv, the news from the US is received with cautious optimism. 

Gwara Media talked to Ukrainian experts in US politics to figure out how the changes in the Senate and House of Representatives could affect Ukraine. 

Blue Wave 

According to the New York Times interactive map, Democrats secured a decisive victory, taking or keeping at least 44 seats in the Senate and 228 in the House of Representatives. Enough to have a majority in both chambers. 

The race was marked by historic Democratic flips in traditional Republican states. In Texas, James Talarico became the first Democrat to win US Senate elections since 1988, ending the party’s 32-year losing streak in statewide elections. 

Meanwhile, in Kansas, the “Blue Wave” washed away the incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, one of the fiercest critics of aid to Ukraine. Adam Hamilton, a pro-Ukrainian Democrat, defeated Marshall, becoming the first Democrat elected to the US Senate from Kansas since 1932. 

The Washington Post reported that the main reason why Republicans lost was President Donald Trump itself. According to the latest polls, 39% of voters approved of him, and 61% didn’t, with 50 percent of voters saying that they strongly disapprove of the President’s policy.  

The protracted war in the Middle East and, especially, subsequent high prices for oil and diesel affected Trump’s ratings. Trump kept urging voters to “pretend he is on the ballot” despite his unpopularity, while other Republicans tried to focus on the party’s traditional issues like migration and crime to mobilize the voters. 

At the same time, Democrats focused on affordability, high prices caused by tariffs and the US’s war in Iran, and healthcare, hitting the bullseye. The economy was the dominant issue for voters, nevermind Trump repeated claims that now the US has the greatest economy in history.

The Washington Post also reported that the shift of Hispanic voters and young men to Democrats helped them to take victory. 

What about Ukraine? 

Will Democrats increase support for Ukraine?

Since Trump took office, Ukraine has been under constant pressure from the Republican administration. The US President almost completely cut military aid for Kyiv and regularly used intelligence sharing as a tool to pressure Ukraine to accept Putin’s peace terms. However, the victory of Democrats doesn’t guarantee a substantial increase in military and financial aid for Kyiv.  

Denis Sihai, the expert in US policy for the ADASTRA, a Ukrainian analytical center, said that the Democratic Party now consists of a broad coalition with different views on foreign policy. Many future lawmakers haven’t articulated their position on increasing military aid for Ukraine, while their election campaigns were mostly focused on domestic issues. 

Sihai points to Abdul El-Sayed, the newly elected senator from Michigan. Although he expressed his support for Ukraine, he remains skeptical about spending money on foreign military assistance. He also hasn’t outlined a detailed proposal for increasing aid for Kyiv. 

“The task for Ukrainian diplomacy and lobbying efforts in the coming weeks and months is to ascertain the position of each individual elected official and seek ways to unite Ukraine’s allies in order to advance the pro-Ukrainian agenda on Capitol Hill,” Sihai said. 

Irina Krasnoshtan, an international policy expert, also doesn’t expect a dramatic shift in US policy. She believes that Democrats may strengthen pro-Ukrainian political rhetoric, including the introduction of new assistance packages into budget proposals.

At the same time, a return to the level of assistance provided by former US President Joe Biden seems unlikely to Krasnoshtan — even if legislation passes both chambers, it still needs presidential approval. Donald Trump has the power to veto legislation, and overriding that veto would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers. 

Krasnoshtan said that Democrats could also increase pressure on the Trump administration to supply additional PAC-3 air defense missiles for Patriot systems or demand the full implementation of sanctions against Russia, including those introduced by former Sen. Lindsey Graham. 

Therefore, the main change is not that Trump will lose his powers, but that it will become much more difficult for him to implement his policies, said Marko Kopyl, also an expert in US policy at ADASTRA. 

For Ukraine, it would be a mistake to place its best on Democrats exclusively — Kyiv will have to keep in contact with both parties, especially with moderate Republicans who keep supporting the deterrence of Russia, Kopyl added. 

“The main argument for Kyiv has to be not just moral, but pragmatic: supporting Ukraine weakens one of the USA’s geopolitical opponents, strengthens Europe, and allows us to keep Russian aggression at bay without participation of Washington troops. Around these arguments, Kyiv can still keep bipartisan support.” 

Will Democrats hold Trump accountable? 

Despite the actual increase in aid, Krasnoshtern and Sihai believe that stronger congressional oversight of Trump’s administration could make a significant difference.

Trump will still retain considerable authority on foreign policy and military affairs, but the congressional committees can conduct hearings, summon officials, and investigate the legitimacy of the administration’s decisions. 

Krasnohstan said that Democrats could examine interruptions in intelligence sharing with Ukraine, Starlink disruptions, and the so-called diesel agreement between Trump and Vladimir Putin. These investigations wouldn’t reverse Trump’s decisions, but they could increase the political and reputational ramifications of them for Republicans. 

Will Democrats impact peace talks between Ukraine and Russia? 

Krasnoshtan said that it’s hard to expect an immediate transformation of Washington’s position on negotiations. She believes that this victory could weaken Trump politically and change how international partners perceive his negotiation authority. 

Sihai also talked about additional opportunities in sanctions against Russia. He said Democrats could make it easier for pro-Ukrainian Republicans to cooperate across party lines to increase economic pressure on Moscow. 

The timing matters too, Sihai said. The new Congress will not convene until Jan. 3, 2027. Sihai warns that this period could be extremely sensitive if Trump attempts to advance his version of peace agreements between Russia and Ukraine before the new congressional majority takes office. At the same time, Krasnoshtan said that it could create opportunities for Kyiv and Europe to coordinate their positions with American lawmakers in the future. 

…And Europe 

When asked about whether Europe should continue to strengthen its strategic autonomy from the US after the elections, Krasnoshtan said, “They have no choice but to do it.” 

She said that the shift in American attitudes toward European security started long before Trump. Like Republicans, Democrats expect European countries to be greatly involved in the security of their continent.   

Krasnoshtan spoke of the Pentagon’s six-month review of the presence of the US military in Europe. It was launched in June 2026, as a marker for potential changes to the American military posture. Krasnoshtan said that Democratic control could help constrain some of Trump’s most controversial decisions but wouldn’t reverse broader tendency toward greater European responsibility. 

Sihai added that Washington’s strategic reorientation toward Asia began under Barack Obama, rather than Trump. He said that the US increasingly views Asia and the Middle East as its principal security priorities, however, Trump announced that the US will stop financing Israel in 2026.  

Sihai said that it is essential for Europe to find a way to approach the ability to act when American support is limited. He acknowledged that Trump’s demand to European countries to increase spending on Ukraine’s defense has contributed to this process. 

“Of course, we would like this pressure to be accompanied by a positive example set by the United States itself, but given the current reality, it is difficult to talk about that.”

Hi, I’m Nazar. I’ve enjoyed seeing the Blue Wave happen personally — but, working from Kharkiv we always have to think on how this change may affect Ukraine’s relationships with the USA. I wrote this article during a partial blackout in the city as Russia keeps bombing this country’s infrastructure — and I hope you’ve found it insightful. If you want to support our journalism, please consider a one-time donation or becoming a long-term member of our community. 

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