UKRAINE, Mar. 2 — 70% of surveyed Ukrainians don’t believe that trilateral peace talks with Russia and the US will lead to a lasting peace in the Russia-Ukraine war, the results of the poll by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), conducted on Feb. 12-Feb. 24, show.
The US-brokered talks on ending the Russia-Ukraine war began last year, with Russia demanding that Ukraine withdraw from Donetsk oblast, limit its army, commit to not joining NATO, and so on. Negotiations’ latest iteration took place in Geneva, after which Ukraine President’s Office head Kyryl Budanov said Russia agreed to US-proposed post-war security guarantees, but then Bloomberg reported Russia wants to quit peace talks if Ukraine doesn’t let it occupy the Donetsk region.
25% of respondents of the KIIS poll believe the Washington-Kyiv-Moscow negotiations will lead to lasting peace, and 5% were undecided.
This question was asked to 2,004 citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and older who lived in Ukraine-controlled territories.
In January, KIIS also asked 1,003 respondents was to evaluate to conditions for “achieving peace”: “Ukraine withdraws its troops from the territories of Donbas (Ukraine-controlled territories of Donetsk oblast — ed.) that it currently controls, i.e. from Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, etc., and these territories pass under Russian control. In return, the USA and Europe give Ukraine security guarantees.”
57% of respondents categorically reject the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donetsk oblast in exchange for security guarantees from the USA and Europe. 36% are ready to agree to the condition, although mostly reluctantly. The remaining 7% could not decide or refused to answer.
In February, to release this poll, KIIS asked the other part of the sample a differently formulated question, about letting Russia occupy the territory of the Donetsk Oblast and getting US security guarantees. Here’s how the question was formulated:
“Ukraine withdraws its troops from the territories of Donbas that it currently controls, that is, from Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, etc., and these territories are coming under the control of Russia. After Ukraine withdraws its troops from Donbas, the USA promises to provide security guarantees. At the same time, the USA will not station its troops in Ukraine, will not close the sky, and will not give Ukraine weapons for free.”
With clarification on the conditions of security guarantees from the USA, more respondents said that the withdrawal of troops from the Donetsk Oblast is “unacceptable.”
“If respondents are given information about the procedure and format of security guarantees from the USA, their readiness to approve the agreement drops from 36% to 25%. On the other hand, the number of those who categorically reject such a proposal increases from 57% to 68%,” the KMIIS said.
The statistical error of a sample of about 1,000 respondents (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) doesn’t exceed 4.1%, the KIIS said, adding that “conditions of war” may affect quality of the results.
⚡ The fifth year of the Russian full-scale invasion started, so it’s been four years since most of us here at our Kharkiv-based newsroom became war reporters. Please consider supporting our journalism via a one-time donation — or join our community.
UPD from Mar. 2, 2026, 2:36 p.m.: Details of negotiations in Geneva corrected and elaborated on.
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