Geolocated footage published on October 12 indicates that Russian forces made limited gains southwest of Orlyanka (22km east of Kupyansk), the Institute for the Study of War reported.

The main goal of Russia in this part of the frontline is to capture the rest of Luhansk region and advance to the east of Kharkiv and the north of Donetsk region.

The Institute quotes Russian sources claiming that Russian forces advanced to Krokhmalne (25km southeast of Kupyansk), near Synkivka (8km northeast of Kupyansk), and captured several unspecified positions near Lyman Pershyi (12km northeast of Kupyansk). However, ISW has not observed evidence of these claims.

Map of the Kupyansk direction / Map: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project

According to a Ukrainian military analyst, there have been reports of limited movements by units from the Russian 138th Motorized Rifle Brigade, which is part of the 6th Combined Arms Army within the Western Military District. These movements were noted in the direction of Synkivka from the Lyman Pershyi area. However, it’s noteworthy that Ukrainian authorities have not officially verified this information.

The Ukrainian General Staff has confirmed that Ukrainian forces successfully defended against Russian assaults in the vicinity of Synkivka and Ivanivka, located approximately 20 kilometers southeast of Kupyansk. Furthermore, a Ukrainian military observer has reported that units from the Russian 26th Tank Regiment, part of the 47th Tank Division within the 1st Guards Tank Army, made an unsuccessful attempt to launch an attack along the Yahidne-Ivanivka line, situated 20 to 22 kilometers southeast of Kupyansk.

A Russian military blogger asserted that Russian troops initiated an attack near Kyslivka. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash has conveyed that Russian forces are currently intensifying their offensive activities in the Synkivka and Ivanivka sectors. Furthermore, they are deploying both artillery and personnel towards the Kupyansk-Lyman region.

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