Russian troops may intensify efforts to capture Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast in the coming weeks and have a force grouping in the area that appears less degraded than units responsible for offensives elsewhere in eastern Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The Russian army appears to have created conditions conducive to intensifying operations in the Kupiansk area (Kharkiv and Luhansk regions) intending to seize these territories.

Ukrainian officials have previously stated that Russian forces aim to capture Kupiansk and Borova (35 km west of Svatove) in the winter of 2024. The occupation of these settlements would likely displace Ukrainian forces from the eastern bank of the Oskil River in Kharkiv region and create conditions for future Russian offensives along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

The pace of Russian operations on the Kupiansk direction and the configuration of Russian forces in the occupied Luhansk and Kharkiv regions do not generally indicate an impending Russian offensive along the entire Lyman-Kupiansk line (Kharkiv, Luhansk and part of Donetsk regions), similar to the failed Russian offensive in northeastern Ukraine in 2023.

Russian forces appear to be gradually rebuilding units that suffered significant losses during the Ukrainian counter-offensive in September 2022 and the failed Russian offensive in the winter and spring of 2023, and the Russian command likely intends to use these relatively well-rested and restored units to intensify the localised offensive operations that Russian forces launched in the area in October 2023

Map of hostilities in the Eastern Ukraine / Source: ISW

The Russian forces operating in the Kupiansk direction do not appear to have deployed significant forces to the current offensive operations in the area and thus have been able to withstand localised ground attacks without suffering losses similar to those experienced by Russian forces during operations around Avdiivka and in southern Ukraine.

Russia could deploy new forces to the Kupiansk direction at a rate roughly equal to Russian losses. However, these elements will likely be poorly trained Storm-Z and Storm-V assault units.

Read the story: Kremlin likely aimed to occupy Avdiivka and Kupiansk before elections in March 2024 – ISW.

The Kremlin may be using Putin’s military-focused announcement to convince this large group of voters that the Russian military supports Putin. Putin’s announcement may alternatively aim to demonstrate that he has the support of the Russian military to make any further discussion of the war in Ukraine during his campaign unnecessary.

Russian authorities tasked its military with capturing Avdiivka, and possibly Kupiansk, before the March 2024 elections, and this exhibition of the military’s support for Putin’s candidacy is perhaps meant as a hedging strategy should the Russian military be unable to meet these given deadlines.

Kupiansk, a town in eastern Kharkiv Oblast with a pre-war population of about 30,000 people, was occupied from late February till September 2022. The city is a railway and road hub between Kharkiv and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine.

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Constant missile attacks and deserted streets: how Kupiansk lives on the front line. It is 10-15 km / 6–9 miles from the front line and 40 km / 25 miles from the border with Russia. The city was severely damaged at the beginning of the full-scale invasion and during the battle for its liberation in September 2022.