Aug 15 — Ukraine’s loss of control over part of Donetsk Oblast would have “catastrophic consequences,” because the front would shift approximately 80 kilometers west, and Russia would gain open ground giving it a direct path towards Kharkiv, Poltava, and Dnipro, said Elina Beketova, a fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, to The Independent.

On August 8, during a White House briefing, American President Donald Trump said that a peace agreement on the Russia-Ukraine war should be expected to include “some swapping of territories.”

On August 15, Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, will meet Trump in Alaska to discuss ending the Russia-Ukraine war.

Beketova said that now Ukraine is holding a major defensive line across Donetsk. She explained that Ukraine began building the fortified zone in 2014 after Russia occupied parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and Crimea. 

“It’s not just trenches, it’s a deep, layered defence with bunkers, anti-tank ditches, minefields, and industrial areas built into the terrain. The area includes dominant heights, rivers, and urban zones that make it extremely hard to capture,” said Beketova.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also calls the Donetsk region a “fortress belt” because it forms the main fortified defensive line across the front line, stretching through Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk, Myrnograd, and others.

The Independent said that about 88% of the Donbas region is controlled by Russia.

According to Reuters, this includes almost all of the Luhansk region and 75 per cent of the Donetsk region. About 6,600 square kilometers is still controlled by Ukraine, but Russia has been focusing along the front in the Donetsk region, pushing towards the last remaining major cities.

On August 11, ISW said that, before the meeting of Trump and Putin, Russia was trying to create a narrative around their offensive in Ukraine to make it seem like taking over four regions — Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson — is inevitable. According to analysts, they aim to put pressure on Ukraine and its Western allies and extract compromises from them.

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