UKRAINE, KUPIANSK, Aug 18 — Russian forces have been trying to occupy Kupiansk — the largest city east of Kharkiv Oblast — for 22 months. They launched the second offensive in October 2023, following the Ukrainian counteroffensive, reported the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Kupiansk has been one of the primary targets of the Russian army since the start of a full-scale invasion because of its logistics and transportation importance.

ISW assumes that Russian forces have historically thrown themselves into costly campaigns to seize fortified or urban areas in eastern Ukraine.

The Institute notes that the reality on the frontlines is “very far” from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claims of “rapid breakthroughs.” After 22 months of offensive operations, the Russians have still failed to encircle Kupiansk.

Analysts cite other examples of such operations. According to their data, the Russians occupied Toretsk in 14 months, while efforts to surround and seize Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk have been ongoing for 26 and 18 months, respectively.  ISW concludes: none of these operations can be compared to the scale of the offensive required to capture the so-called “belt of fortresses”: Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka.

“Russia could only rapidly seize all of Donetsk Oblast if Ukraine concedes to Putin’s (the Russian President) demand and withdraws from the remainder of the oblast,” said analysts.

On August 16, the media reported that after meeting with Donald Trump, the American President, Putin boasted that he “could capture the entire Donetsk region if he wanted to.” ISW analysts believe that this statement is false.

At the same time, Reuters reported that during a meeting with Trump at an airbase in Alaska, Putin demanded that Ukraine withdraw its troops from parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions that the Russian army had been unable to capture. He promised to freeze frontlines in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

ISW analysts and other military experts said that occupying the “belt of fortresses” would give the Russians a foothold for an offensive on the Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Poltava regions.

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