The main objective of Russia in this section of the frontline is the complete occupation of Luhansk Oblast and advancement to the east of Kharkiv Oblast and the north of Donetsk Oblast, according to the American Institute for the Study of War.

Positional fighting in the Kupiansk sector continued on February 2, but no confirmed changes in the front line in this area were recorded. The Institute quoted Russian and Ukrainian sources as confirming active fighting northeast of Kupiansk near Synkivka and southeast of Kupiansk in the areas of Ivanivka, Tabaivka, Krokhmalne and Berestove.

Captain Ilya Yevlash, spokesman for Ukraine’s Eastern Military Group, said that Russian troops had concentrated 40,000 personnel, 500 tanks, 650 infantry fighting vehicles, 430 artillery systems and more than 150 multiple rocket launchers in the Kupiansk direction, and that a total of 57,000 Russian troops were deployed in the Kupiansk and Lyman directions.

Ukrainian officials and sources said that as of October 2023, Russian troops had concentrated about 100,000 troops in the Kupiansk and Lyman directions.

“Yevlash may have been referring to a geographically smaller sector of the frontline zone than other Ukrainian sources. Russian troops continued to intensify local offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line,” ISW analysts said.

On February 2, Russian troops advanced to the west of Kreminna amid ongoing positional fighting in the area. The institute, citing sources in Russia, noted that in recent days, Russian troops have advanced about 2-2.5 kilometers in the direction of Terny and Yampolivka (both west of Kreminna), and it was also claimed that Russian troops were two kilometers from Terny. However, ISW found no visual evidence to support these claims.

Read the story: Kremlin likely aimed to occupy Avdiivka and Kupiansk before elections in March 2024 – ISW.

The Kremlin may be using Putin’s military-focused announcement to convince this large group of voters that the Russian military supports Putin. Putin’s announcement may alternatively aim to demonstrate that he has the support of the Russian military to make any further discussion of the war in Ukraine during his campaign unnecessary.

Russian authorities tasked its military with capturing Avdiivka, and possibly Kupiansk, before the March 2024 elections, and this exhibition of the military’s support for Putin’s candidacy is perhaps meant as a hedging strategy should the Russian military be unable to meet these given deadlines.

Kupiansk, a town in eastern Kharkiv Oblast with a pre-war population of about 30,000 people, was occupied from late February till September 2022. The city is a railway and road hub in eastern Ukraine between Kharkiv and Luhansk regions.

More from Gwara

Constant missile attacks and deserted streets: how Kupiansk lives on the front line. It is 10-15 km / 6–9 miles from the front line and 40 km / 25 miles from the border with Russia. The city was severely damaged at the beginning of the full-scale invasion and during the battle for its liberation in September 2022.